Market Awaits U.S. CPI Data

Advertisements

On December 11, 2023, before the opening bell on Wall Street, the financial markets displayed mixed signals as the futures of the three major U.Sstock indices reflected a slight pullback and gainsThe Dow Jones futures dropped by 0.13%, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 saw modest increases of 0.11% and 0.22%, respectivelyAcross the Atlantic, major European indices reacted similarly, with Germany's DAX up by 0.08%, the UK's FTSE 100 also gaining 0.08%, and France’s CAC 40 resting at a 0.07% increase, albeit the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.07%.

In the commodity market, crude oil showed a positive trend, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbing by 1.04% to $69.30 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by 0.97% to $72.89.

As traders awaited the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a major influence on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the anticipation created heightened sensitivity among market participants

Set to be released by the U.SBureau of Labor Statistics at 9:30 PM Beijing time on Wednesday, this crucial economic indicator is expected to reveal that the progress in curbing inflation has stalled, although it may not deter the Fed from considering a rate cut at next week’s meeting.

Economists project a year-on-year increase in the November CPI of around 2.7%, slightly above the previous month's increase of 2.6%. This broader measure of price changes in goods and services illustrates the financial difficulties encountered by American families amid rising living costs, emphasizing the significant role of inflation in shaping economic policiesFurthermore, the core CPI, stripping out food and energy costs, is expected to rise 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, reflecting the Fed's ongoing struggle to maintain an inflation target of 2%.

Notably, 90% of economists surveyed anticipated that the Fed would announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its meeting slated for December 18. This adjustment would reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.50%. However, concerns over rising inflation risks prompted most economists to forewarn against further reductions in January

The discussion surrounding potential policy measures, encompassing tariffs on imports and tax cuts, could intensify inflationary pressures, thereby influencing Fed decisions significantly during the next agenda-set period after January 20.

On the global stage, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) communicated that the costs associated with awaiting the next interest rate hike are minimalThe sentiment among policymakers indicates that any discussions around raising rates in December might not face considerable opposition, with officials viewing a future rate increase as inevitable rather than speculativeFollowing this announcement, the Japanese Yen experienced substantial fluctuations, dropping to a low of 150.99 against the U.Sdollar before recovering around 100 points, ultimately settling near the 152 markCurrent market assessments suggest a roughly 26% chance that the BOJ will increase rates by 25 basis points in its forthcoming meeting.

In the realm of precious metals, Goldman Sachs remains bullish on gold, asserting that the recent dip in prices is a fleeting phenomenon, forecasting that gold could soar to $3,000 an ounce, even amid a robust dollar

The firm attributes this optimistic outlook to three principal factors: the continued dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, escalating purchases by global central banks, and increased demand among investorsSince 2022, gold prices have surged by 40%, even in the face of rising U.Sinterest rates, which typically dampen gold's appeal due to its lack of interest-bearing benefits relative to bondsGoldman Sachs reiterated its narrative regarding how, amidst the freezing of Russian assets by Western nations in 2022, gold emerged as a coveted alternative due to its intangible characteristics — an asset no one can seize.

Shifting to individual stocks, GameStop reported a decline in sales for the third quarter, overshadowing Wall Street's forecastsNevertheless, the gaming retailer's adjusted earnings per share exceeded expectations, coming in at 0.06 USD compared to a projected loss of 0.03 USD determined by FactSet analysts

alefox

Despite net sales falling to $860.3 million, down 20% from the previous year's $1.08 billion and also shy of the $888 million consensus estimates, the market reacted favorably, with the company’s shares climbing more than 10% in after-hours trading owing to the better-than-expected earnings.

In corporate news, it emerged that the U.Sgovernment is poised to officially block the sale of U.SSteel (X.US) to Japan's Nippon Steel on national security grounds, a move that is likely to prompt litigation from both partiesU.SSteel expressed its belief that this transaction should receive approval on its merit, while Nippon Steel criticized the political motives behind the potential blockage, reinforcing its trust in the fair nature of the U.Slegal framework.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs heralded the environment as favorable for mergers and acquisitions, with its stock poised for a significant rise reminiscent of the last 15 years

CEO David Solomon hinted at the dawn of a beneficial period for the firm, suggesting that the incoming administration appears inclined towards fostering an economic growth agenda, implying a potential reduction in financial regulations that could stimulate trading activity and elevate asset prices.

Turning to the automotive sector, Tesla experienced a robust start to December in China, achieving its highest weekly sales of electric vehicles in the first week of the month with 21,900 units soldThis ambitious figure marks a new high for Q4, prompting a more than 65% surge in Tesla's stock price, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 indexFollowing a record-setting November, where the company recorded over 73,000 vehicles sold — its best month of the year — the recent sales figures continue to exemplify Tesla's expanding footprint in the lucrative Chinese market.

In stark contrast, General Motors has decided to withdraw from the automated ride-hailing sector, merging its autonomous driving unit, Cruise, with its broader technology team

Leave a Comments