As a new week commences, traders are advised to remain vigilant and synchronize their strategies with ongoing market trendsIn the previous week, both gold and silver experienced a notable rollercoaster ride—initially surging before succumbing to a downturnThe rise was pronounced, with gold peaking at 2725 and silver reaching 32.3 at the height of bullish fervorHowever, Thursday marked a shift to bearish sentiment, leading to significant drops—gold plummeted to 2643 and silver sank to 30.2. This performance highlighted a crafty move in market positioning, allowing traders to capitalize on the potential reversalAs we delve into the current week, the expectation is that gold will continue to reflect last week’s weakness, with potential declines looming, possibly breaking previous low points and indicating a possible sustained trend downwardOil prices, conversely, formed a solid base at 67 last week before fueling an ascent to 71, with forecasts indicating bullish momentum could push prices toward 73 in the upcoming days.

This week heralds the final major monetary policy meeting of the year from essential global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England

The general market consensus suggests the Fed will continue with rate cuts, that the Bank of Japan may hold off on further tightening, and that the Bank of England is likely to remain static in its policiesNotably, numerous central banks across Europe and Asia are expected to follow the Fed's lead in reducing interest ratesThe significance is underscored by the fact that at least 22 central banks worldwide will announce their respective interest rate decisions this week, representing nearly 40% of the global economyWith inflation metrics signaling that concerns over price escalation may be tapering, many central banks find they no longer need to maintain restrictive interest ratesTraders are urged to tune in to the New York Fed's manufacturing index data and preliminary readings of the global manufacturing PMI this week, as these influence market movements.

The dollar index has been fluctuating at elevated levels this cycle

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Although the previous bullish trend was evident in its climb, hitting plateaus that prevent further substantial gains, no significant drops have occurred either, indicating a turbulent equilibriumThis week’s focus will be on monitoring the dollar's fluctuations without expecting drastic movementGold, after a week defined by a series of peaks and valleys—beginning with a rise to 2725 and dropping to 2643—appears weakened, necessitating attention to bearish developmentsThe immediate concern is whether bearish momentum can establish itself and how low it may go—the critical benchmark being 2600. A breach of this level might signify a severe downward trajectory, subjecting the commodity to critical support levels like 2535. An understanding of these dynamics is essential, especially as market shifts are influenced by crucial economic reports, particularly the theoretical resolutions from the Fed on Thursday and the PCE data released Friday.

From a technical viewpoint, the daily charts have painted a bearish picture, confirmed by the series of lower closes on Thursday and Friday

The Bollinger bands are tightening, and the price has settled below the midline, denoting a lack of bullish vigorTraders should be braced for potential testing of Bollinger lower support near 2600 this weekAfter assessing whether it breaks through, they can consider the potential for further downward movementThe H4 charts display a clear directionality, showcased by last Friday's uninterrupted drop with minimal bounce—indicating the influence of a bearish trendTraders should thus concentrate their efforts on shorting near resistance levels at 2660, 2672, and 2688. Caution is advised; even in a bearish outlook, investors should refrain from aggressively pursuing short positions without waiting for confirmatory rebounds, especially if surpassing 2672 indicates a market shift to range-bound movements.

Silver also displayed significant volatility, particularly the downfall experienced after breaching the 31.5 threshold, leading to a modest uptick to 32.3 before dipping sharply to 30.2. This serves to illustrate that there is a potential range of nearly two dollars within which silver operates

Currently hovering around 30.5, the prevailing trend suggests further declines, with projections estimating declines to 30 and 29.5, with 29.5 acting as a critical support level over the last monthOnly once this threshold is breached can one expect a definitive bearish trend to consolidate, defining a trading approach conditioned on waiting for resistance-based rebounds before pursuing short positionsFrom a strategic standpoint, existing short positions entered at 32.2 were profitably closed at 30.5, with upcoming short opportunities identified around the 31 mark.

Turning to crude oil, the assessment remains decidedly bullish as we proceed into the new trading weekWith previous forecasts aligning with market behavior that saw prices soar to the 71 mark, it concluded at that level, reinforcing its strengthThe outlook continues to focus on upward momentum, potentially nearing 73 or even 76 as traders investigate bullish positions